NEW PARTY FORMATION

.   In Turkish political history, mass defections from CHP and new party formations have occurred periodically.

The key points to consider regarding this situation are:

1. Numerical and Legal Framework

-Grand National Assembly of Turkey (GNAT) Table: The simultaneous resignation of 91 deputies from a party to form a new party or join another formation would be an unprecedented major rupture in Turkish political history. There has been no mass resignation of this scale from CHP in the current GNAT seat distribution.

-Threshold for Forming a Group: In the GNAT,  20 deputies are sufficient for a political party to form a group. 91 deputies constitute a key number that would completely change the main opposition balances in the Parliament.

2. Historical Separations and New Parties

.   Looking at the history of CHP, there have been significant defections and parties formed, but none have ended CHP's existence:

-Democrat Party (1946): Established with the expulsion/separation of Celâl Bayar, Adnan Menderes, Fuat Köprülü, and Refik Koraltan (the "Quadruple Motion") from CHP.

-Güven Party (1967): Established with the separation of Turhan Feyzioğlu and his colleagues.

-Republican Güven Party (1973): Formed by the merger of the Republican Party, established by Kemal Satır and his team after their separation, with the Güven Party.

-Homeland Party (2021): Established with the separation of Muharrem İnce and some accompanying deputies.

3. Institutional Continuity

.   Established in 1923, CHP has maintained its existence as the oldest political organization in the history of the republic, with the exception of its closure during the September 12, 1980 military coup.

Even if disagreements, resignations, and new party formations within political parties affect their “internal dynamics,” it is quite difficult from a political science perspective for structures with deep-rooted traditions to “completely” cease to exist with a single move.

.   COULD THIS BE AN OPERATION?

.  When such large (or exaggerated) claims come to the fore in politics and public opinion, the question of whether there is a conscious “perception operation” or psychological warfare tactic behind it is extremely understandable.

.  When evaluating the possibility of the initiative being a perception operation rather than a real parliamentary move, these three aspects stand out:

1. Perception Management and Attrition Strategy

Unrealized or exaggerated numerical claims (such as "91 deputies resigned") are usually circulated with the following objectives:

-Creating Distrust Among the Electorate: To weaken the voters' “morale and sense of belonging” by spreading the impression that the party is disintegrating, control has been lost, and it has reached the end of the road.

-Triggering Internal Party Unrest: To damage the “bond of trust” between deputies, organizations, and the general headquarters by creating suspicion like "Who is leaving, I wonder?"

-Setting the Agenda: To divert public attention from real economic or social discussions by locking it onto a fictional "fragmentation" scenario.

2. Exploiting the Speed of Disinformation

.  While verifying information takes time in the digital age, “dramatic” headlines like "sudden fragmentation" reach large audiences within minutes. In politics, this situation is called a "disinformation operation."

.  The aim is to leave the perception in people's minds that "There's no smoke without fire," even if the information is denied.

3. How Do Real Operational Moves Occur?

.  When examining real political interventions or intra-party operations in history, these processes are generally observed to work as follows:

-Secrecy and Suddenness: Real defections are kept “as much as possible from the public” until signatures and petitions are submitted to the Speaker of the Parliament.

-Gradual Resignations: It is almost “logistically and legally” impossible for a massive bloc like 91 to act in a single day; the process is usually escalated with resignations in small groups.

.   IN SUMMARY: 

.   If the claim that 91 deputies have left is not based on concrete fact, then there is a very high probability that this is an information operation aimed at preventing CHP from consolidating, creating a perception of "disintegration" in the public, and fueling internal debates.

.   The appearance of such a "very strong" "movement" acting with a “mass psychology” suggests that it is one of the first steps of a long-term, "broad plan" orchestrated "for Turkey's future."

.   In the political arena, when the impression arises that societies, masses, or party groups act “suddenly” and homogeneously, exhibiting "mass psychology,” the question of whether this is a “spontaneous” development or a product of “long-term engineering” – a "master plan" – has always been debated throughout history.

.  When interpreting major social and political fluctuations from this perspective, the key dynamics to consider are:

1. Mass Psychology and Manipulation

.   Individuals come together or are exposed to an intense “wave of perception,” they can set aside their “rational” filters and adopt a “collective state of mind .” (mass behavior) 

In politics, this situation is usually guided in the following ways:

-Induced Fear or Discourse: When the masses are instilled with the feeling that "a great collapse is happening" or "a new power is emerging," individuals may tend to be swept to one side “without questioning.”

-Herd Perception: People inherently have the urge to side with the winner or the seemingly larger crowd (or not to be left alone). If a movement is presented as much "stronger" and "inevitable" than it is, this situation can turn into a “snowball effect.”

2. The "Long-Term Plan" and Political Engineering Thesis

.  In politics, transforming societal perceptions, “eroding” deep-rooted structures, and establishing “new balances” are possible not with short-term steps, but with strategies that extend “over a long period” .

Phase 1 - Weakening Institutional Loyalty: An “erosion of trust” is created against structures that society or the electorate trusts.

Phase 2 - Triggering Herd Movement: A perception of “mass orientation” is created by giving the impression of an artificial or directed "defection" or "undercurrent."

Phase 3 - New Political Design: The main targeted long-term scenario (changing parliamentary arithmetic, dividing opposition blocs, or establishing a new government/opposition balance) is put into play.

3. Sociological Reality or Artificial Design?

.   When analyzing social events, there are two “extreme risks”:

-Considering all developments as coincidences: To “disregard” the long-term plans of political actors, strategists, and global/local centers of influence would be naivety .

-Attributing everything to a perfect plan: In politics, “societal reactions,” “economic factors,” and the human element (unforeseen errors) that are always unaccounted for disrupt processes.

.   IN CONCLUSION: 

.   If there is a process at play that operates with "mass psychology" and performs a “power simulation,” this situation, rather than being a spontaneous social wave on its own, could be part of a long-term perception strategy, coolly orchestrated to gradually persuade public opinion towards a specific “political outcome.” 

.  The establishment of a “New Party” would also be like this.

.  When the party to be established becomes the “Main opposition party,” the dynamics and behaviors within the parliament will change.

.  What will the party members “left behind” in CHP think and how will they act?

.  If an operation emerges to completely “shut down” CHP by destroying its fundamental values, this situation will not be pleasant at all for Turkey and the Turkish nation.

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