Public opinion polls ahead of the September 6 elections in the state of Saxony-Anhalt show the Alternative for Germany (AfD) Party with a clear lead, polling over 40 percent. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Prime Minister Friedrich Merz, is in second place, polling in the 22-23 percent range.

The Social Democratic Party (SPD), the government's junior partner, is polling in the 7-9 percent range, while the Greens are in the 5-6 percent range.

The possibility of the AfD gaining an absolute majority and coming to power for the first time in this state is drawing attention to the September 6 elections.

Journalist and author Jana Hensel, along with political scientist and sociologist Steffen Mau, commented to an Anadolu Agency (AA) correspondent on the AfD's high vote share in the eastern states and the potential effects of the election results on national politics.

Hensel stated that there are many reasons for the AfD's high vote share in the eastern states. She noted that despite 36 years since Germany's reunification, the eastern states have not reached the prosperity level of the west.

Emphasizing that there are 'very large economic and social differences,' Hensel stated that domestic policy discussions are conducted from a West German perspective.

Hensel conveyed that many people living in eastern Germany feel like they are 'living in the country's periphery' and are 'not seen.'

Hensel stated that despite Saxony-Anhalt being a small state, the elections will have significant effects, arguing that the AfD has grown stronger during Merz's tenure as Prime Minister.

Hensel said, "During Friedrich Merz's time, the AfD got out of control. The AfD, which long polled around 20 percent in eastern Germany, has now reached 40 percent in the polls."

Noting that this rise began in the final months of the previous government, Hensel stated, "This party recorded a very significant increase during Friedrich Merz's term. Friedrich Merz is largely responsible for the AfD's high support."

Hensel, stating that she cannot currently say what will happen in Berlin in the coming period, commented, "I don't think the government will fall. However, there is at least a question mark over whether Friedrich Merz will continue his duty as Germany's Prime Minister."

"AfD is a great danger to democracy"

Hensel noted that this election serves as a vote on the federal government's policies and Friedrich Merz's reforms.

Stating that the AfD is an extremely radical organization in the state of Saxony-Anhalt, Hensel said, "The AfD is a great danger to democracy."

Hensel pointed to the AfD's Saxony-Anhalt election program. She explained that the program calls for a toughening of migration policy and bringing cultural and education policy into line with an ideological stance. She stated that this is a very dangerous political program foreseeing fundamental changes.

Warning that the social climate in the country will harden if the AfD comes to power, Hensel said, "Racism and anti-immigrant rhetoric will virtually start coming from a state government, meaning from the state premier. This will greatly harden the social atmosphere."

To the question of whether the German government's foreign policy has had an effect on the increase in AfD votes, Hensel replied, "The AfD has not benefited so greatly from anything else as it has from Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine."

Political scientist and sociologist Mau also stated that the elections in Saxony-Anhalt are important. He said, "They will also have effects on the federal government in Berlin. They will put Prime Minister Merz under great pressure."

Mau noted that if the AfD forms the government in this state, there could be a fundamental change in Germany.

Answering a question about why the AfD receives high votes in the east of the country, Mau replied, "While the population is generally decreasing, migration is increasing. For this reason, shrinking societies often fear migration and new immigrants. This is a situation we can observe not only there (in Saxony-Anhalt) but also in other regions of the country's east."

Political scientist Dr. Benjamin Höhne also stated that the possibility of the AfD taking on governmental responsibility in the state of Saxony-Anhalt has caused public concern. He noted that the AfD has been leading in public opinion polls for a long time.

In the last Bundestag and European Parliament elections, the AfD was seen to increase its votes in this state and generally in eastern Germany. Höhne noted that the AfD hopes to gain a majority in the Saxony-Anhalt state parliament.

However, recent polls showed that smaller parties like the Greens could enter parliament and that the AfD's vote share has slightly declined. For this reason, he stated that the likelihood of the scenario where the AfD could form a government alone has somewhat decreased for now.

Höhne stated that although it doesn't seem likely at the moment, if the AfD were to be part of the state government, not only the people in Saxony-Anhalt but the country as a whole could be affected. He said, "This would also have effects on democracy in general."

Pointing out that in Germany, states participate in the government's legislative process through the Federal Council (Bundesrat), Höhne warned that AfD ministers there could potentially deviate from Germany's consensus-based decision-making methods. He added that this could also make governance at the federal level somewhat more difficult.